Max Verstappen faces ‘dilemma’ as Red Bull warned over Horner exit
Max Verstappen is facing a “dilemma” ahead of the F1 2026 season with the departure of Christian Horner unlikely to result in a more competitive car at Red Bull.
That is the belief of former F1 driver Ralf Schumacher, who reckons a move to Mercedes represents Verstappen’s best best of winning the F1 2026 title.
Max Verstappen to swap Red Bull for Mercedes for F1 2026?Despite being officially under contract with Red Bull until the end of 2028, Verstappen has been heavily linked with a move away for next season in light of the team’s competitive decline and the lingering question marks over its 2026 prospects.
Horner, the recently departed Red Bull team principal, confirmed to media including PlanetF1.com last year that Verstappen’s contract contains a “performance element” that could allow him to leave the Milton Keynes outfit before 2028.
It is believed that Verstappen will be able to activate an exit clause if he is lower than fourth in the Drivers’ standings after the Hungarian Grand Prix, the final race before F1’s summer break, early next month.
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Verstappen currently holds third in the championship with an 18-point advantage over George Russell, the driver he would most likely replace at Mercedes.
Charles Leclerc, the Ferrari driver, sits a further 28 points back in fifth place.
It was claimed earlier this week that Ola Kallenius, the Mercedes chief executive, has approved Verstappen’s proposed move to the Brackley-based team, marking a key breakthrough in negotiations between team and driver.
After winning four consecutive World Championships since 2021, Verstappen’s hopes of retaining his title in F1 2025 are rapidly receding with the 27-year-old trailing leader Oscar Piastri by 69 points.
Verstappen has been restricted to just two victories so far this season, in Japan and Emilia Romagna, with the RB21 car.
Speaking after Horner’s departure was announced last week, Verstappen’s manager Raymond Vermeulen warned that the team principal’s exit would have no impact on his driver’s future.
He said: “We continue to look at the sporting side and are looking for more performance so that we can return to the top.
“In that respect, nothing will change.”
Appearing on the Backstage Pitlane podcast, Schumacher insisted that Horner’s removal will do little to influence Red Bull’s competitiveness under the technical leadership of Pierre Waché.
He said: “The change of team principal will not change anything in the technical team for the time being.
“Designer Pierre Waché will continue to build the car next year.
“It almost looks as if he will not be able to close this gap, replace Adrian Newey in any way and build a car capable of winning.
“Red Bull will therefore face a difficult time. Verstappen is in a dilemma.
“The signs are not good for Red Bull at the moment.
“If Max Verstappen wants to have short-term success next year, he will have to look elsewhere.
“I therefore believe that the journey is heading towards Mercedes.
“I could imagine that he himself is still struggling because he is naturally attached to Red Bull.”
Schumacher’s comments come after Johnny Herbert, the former Sky F1 pundit and FIA steward, claimed that Verstappen will likely be left awestruck by Mercedes’ 2026 engine plans.
Formula 1’s technical regulations will be overhauled next season as the sport embraces 50 per cent electrification, fully sustainable fuels and active aerodynamics.
It is widely believed that Mercedes’ preparations for the new rules are more advanced than its closest rivals amid reports that the remaining four engine manufacturers are all struggling to varying degrees.
Red Bull will produce its own engines for the first time in F1 2026 via its newly established Powertrains division, which will work in conjunction with US manufacturer Ford, as current supplier Honda links up with Aston Martin.
Speaking to media including PlanetF1.com at the recent British Grand Prix, which proved to be his final race in charge, Horner conceded that it would be “embarrassing” for Mercedes if RBPT-Ford produces a better engine next season.
More on Max Verstappen and Red Bull Racing from PlanetF1.comHerbert reckons the growing reservations over Red Bull’s in-house engine program, combined with the promise of a Mercedes power unit, will convince Verstappen to make the switch.
He said: “Max will be very aware of what’s going on within Red Bull’s development programme for next year with the new engine, the new power unit they’re making themselves, and all the different elements to that, and then obviously to the car at the same time.
“Rumours are that it’s not been going very well. But the rumours have been that Mercedes are going very well.
“Max would want to put himself in a position where he has the best chance he can to [win].
“He’s frustrated where he is because they’re not able to give him what he wants.
“There have been a lot of people who have left. There are still things going on behind the scenes.
“The discussions I would have thought that Toto [Wolff, Mercedes boss] and Max have had are probably very, very similar to what Niki Lauda had with Lewis when he got taken out of McLaren and brought over to Mercedes.
“Because I think Mercedes would have shown Max what they’ve got, what they believe they’re going to have for next year, which will probably be the car to beat.
“Now that would be, for me, the little gold nugget that you would dangle in front of Max – and he would be wowed by what he’s being told.
“Toto says it’s all unlikely, but that is classic Toto. There is more to it, for sure.
“Max is thinking: ‘I’ve got to get out of here.’
“It’s little ingredients and that just keeps creeping into his season so far.
“And the more that it happens, the more he must be thinking: ‘I’ve got to move on. I’ve to find a place that would give me what I need.’
“The thing is with Red Bull, with the engine program that they’ve got, it’s going to take time.
“And time is not always what an F1 driver has on his side.”
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