Diesel car alert as owners given 2028 warning

Diesel cars are falling out of favour across the UK, and experts say they could be nearly wiped out within just a few years. New data shows the fuel type, which was once a top choice for drivers, now accounts for just one in every 17 new car sales. And if current trends continue, diesel could make up just 2% of the market by 2028.

That would mean only one in 50 new cars sold in the UK will be powered by diesel - a massive fall from a decade ago, when it was one in two. The decline is being driven by a mix of rising costs, stricter emissions rules and the long-lasting effects of the Dieselgate scandal, when Volkswagen was found to have cheated emissions tests between 2008 and 2015.

Auto Express said the fallout from Dieselgate still affects public perception of diesel cars nearly 10 years later.

Paul Barker, the editor of Auto Express, said: “Once the default choice for company cars thanks to favourable tax breaks, diesels have now been overtaken by EVs, with even stronger incentives encouraging fleets to go electric.

“This, combined with increasing cost, improvements in hybrid tech and the looming 2035 ban on new petrol and diesel sales, mean forecasts suggest diesels will make up just 2% of the market - one in 50 cars - by 2028.”

Carmakers are responding to the shift, with only 91 diesel models currently on the market, compared to 240 available ten years ago.

At the same time, electric vehicle sales continue to rise, including for vans. Battery-powered light commercial vehicles under 3.5 tonnes have seen sales jump 54.4% this year.

Bigger electric vans, between 3.5 and 4.25 tonnes, are up by a massive 163.4%.

But diesel is still the most popular fuel choice for van drivers. Figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) show 85.5% of light commercial vehicles sold this year run on diesel.

Second-hand diesel cars are also holding their value well. Data from Cox Automotive shows they keep 51% of their original price after two to four years.

That’s close to hybrids (53%) and petrol cars (58%), and better than EVs (36%) or plug-in hybrids (46%).

Experts say the fall of diesel has also been driven by tax changes and emissions rules.

Diesel is often more expensive at the pump and faces higher car tax charges. And with more cities introducing clean air zones, many drivers are switching to greener vehicles.

Mr Barker added: “Diesel has gone from dominating the new-car market to near extinction in just a decade, a remarkable fall from grace.

“While sales are dwindling, strong used values show there’s still demand, but the writing is clearly on the wall.”