China: Only 15 NEV Brands to Control Electric Market by 2030

It's a question of method, mentality and speed. The AlixPartners 2025 Global Automotive Outlook sends a strong message: China is no longer just a strategic market for the production of electric vehicles, it is the operational reference point for the future of the entire sector. With its NEVs (New Energy Vehicles) and a radically different approach to industrial development, the Dragon is rewriting the rules of competition.

According to the 22nd edition of the Outlook, the global automotive industry is currently experiencing a structural slowdown. Costs remain high, EV investments in the West are struggling, and market saturation is weighing on many operators. In this context, Chinese NEV brands are not only holding up, but are leading the transformation with what AlixPartners calls the “New Operating Model”: a formula that combines industrial efficiency, technological agility, and rapid decision-making, capable of reducing development times by 50% and costs by 30% compared to traditional methods.

The strategy is based on three pillars: continuous innovation, intelligent localization, and widespread adoption of artificial intelligence. The results are tangible. In a hyper-competitive environment, Chinese manufacturers have demonstrated their ability to rapidly scale production, shorten development cycles from five years to just over two, and generate value through an accessible, technology-rich offering. Today, only 15 of the 129 NEV brands active in China in 2024 are expected to survive financially to 2030, but these few players will control 75% of the NEV market.

Another relevant data concerns Europe. According to AlixPartners forecasts, Chinese manufacturers will double their European market share, reaching 10% by 2030, and will produce 800,000 vehicles per year in the Old Continent, while European car manufacturers are preparing to close around 400,000 units of production capacity, equivalent to 1.5 plants. The increasing localization of Chinese production in Europe is seen as a direct response to trade barriers and geopolitical uncertainty, but also as an evolution of the global model: Chinese brands no longer export just cars, they export method, process and industrial model.

The consolidation of the Chinese NEV market is set to increase pressure on Western OEMs. The Chinese are already taking advantage of unconventional incentives – such as insurance discounts, zero-interest financing, after-sales bonuses – to maintain competitiveness without further lowering price lists. Technology leadership is especially felt in the field of ADAS (advanced driver assistance systems), where China is now the main growth driver. AlixPartners predicts that the global ADAS market will reach $50 billion by 2030, with a 45% Chinese share.

But the change is not just about cars. A fourth industrial revolution is underway, where AI applied to manufacturing is transforming product development, design, and testing. By adopting intelligent tools, it is possible to shave up to eight months from a traditional five-year development cycle and reduce testing and validation costs by 20%. This significantly narrows the gap between Asian and Western production cycles. A third of the gap, according to AlixPartners, has already been closed.

The geopolitical impact is not to be underestimated. The new tariffs imposed by the United States on Chinese vehicles could cost the industry about $30 billion by 2026, pushing many American companies to rethink their supply chains and relocate outside of China. But the Chinese are not standing still: they are growing with local joint ventures, strategic partnerships and shared platforms, taking their operating model where the tariffs don't reach.

“China is the most competitive NEV market in the world,” explains Stephen Dyer, Asia Leader Automotive & Industrial Practice at AlixPartners, “with price wars, rapid innovation, and new entrants continually redefining the standards. But only those who can build strong brands, invest in key technologies, and adapt to global markets will continue to thrive.” Therefore, it will not only be industrial scale that will make the difference, but the ability to transform competitive pressure into a structural advantage.

In this scenario, Europe is also called to respond. The pruning of production portfolios has already begun: according to the Outlook, over 18 billion dollars of assets will be divested in the coming years by European suppliers in search of greater efficiency. But without a clear strategic response, the risk is that of a structural setback.

AlixPartners' analysis is not just a merciless snapshot of the present. It is a call to action for OEMs and suppliers to adopt agile, automated, AI-based models that can respond to market changes in real time. Only in this way will it be possible to compete with those who today launch a car in half the time, with half the budget, but with double the impact on the consumer.