Who will win the Formula 1 title? The facts of the closest battle in years

With just four races remaining, the Formula 1 World Championship has become completely unpredictable. Three drivers are in contention: McLaren teammates Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri are separated by a single point, while defending champion Max Verstappen (Red Bull) is still lurking, 36 points behind the leader. With the points system in place since 2010, which awards 25 points for a win, anything is still possible.

For much of the year, the battle has been between the two young McLaren drivers, both seeking their first title, but after the summer break, Verstappen joined the fray. The winner of the last four world championships keeps his chances alive after a remarkable comeback.

Online prediction markets are a good indicator of the bets placed by those following the championship. On Polymarket, one of the largest, Norris leads after his resounding victory in Mexico , where his rivals lost ground: Verstappen finished third and Piastri fifth. In the last five races, the Briton has scored more points than his teammate and regained the championship lead for the first time since the fourth round , held in Saudi Arabia.

Piastri is the one arriving in the worst form. He hasn't reached the podium in four races and has had to endure the pressure of being the driver to beat for much of the season. His lowest point was the Azerbaijan Grand Prix , where he crashed on the first lap and had to retire.

The one with nothing to lose—and who knows what it's like to be a champion—is Verstappen. In fact, he snatched his first title in 2021 from Lewis Hamilton , who had won the previous five world championships with Mercedes, in a dramatic finish at the last Grand Prix of the season. Of the last six races, the Dutchman won three and finished on the podium in the other two.

There are still 116 points up for grabs: 25 for each of the four races, plus the two sprints (in Brazil and Qatar), shorter races held on Saturdays before qualifying that award eight points to the winner. The first battle will be this weekend in Brazil, where last year Verstappen achieved an epic victory in the rain after starting from 17th. In the sprint, however, the winner was Norris.

The closest finish since 2010

To retain the title, the Dutchman needs to win as many races as possible and hope for poor results from his rivals. If Verstappen wins every race and Norris finishes second, the Briton will be crowned champion. It also wouldn't be enough for the Red Bull driver if Piastri finishes second in every race.

If he succeeds, Verstappen will likely record the greatest comeback in Formula 1 history. Since the current points system was introduced in 2010—25 points per win—the most remarkable was Sebastian Vettel's in 2012. With seven races remaining, the German was 39 points behind Fernando Alonso, but he strung together four consecutive victories and ended up winning the World Championship by just three points, in an unforgettable final at Interlagos .

Another famous comeback was in 2007. Kimi Räikkönen (Ferrari) went into the last two races 17 points behind Lewis Hamilton, when a win was worth 10. Two consecutive victories — in China and Brazil — and McLaren's collapse allowed the Finn to win the title by a single point over Hamilton and Fernando Alonso.