Opinion: Why Red Bull Racing is not the right choice for Isack Hadjar

(Motorsport-Total.com) - "Isack is different," said Helmut Marko after Isack Hadjar's sensational third place at the Dutch Grand Prix in Zandvoort, when asked if he thought the Frenchman could withstand the pressure of possibly becoming Max Verstappen's teammate as early as 2026.

Of all the Faenza team's podium finishes—excluding Sebastian Vettel's Monza victory in 2008—this was arguably one of the most solid. Yes, there were three safety cars and plenty of incidents at Zandvoort, but it wasn't a fluke.

A late retirement from Lando Norris opened the door for Hadjar to the top three, but speed, consistency, and a clean defense took care of the rest. He started fourth, held off George Russell's Mercedes, and stayed close to Verstappen for much of the race. An impressive performance.

Hadjar: Better cards than Tsunoda?

Even if reports of a Red Bull promotion for 2026 seem premature—the team principals are clearly in no hurry to finalize their driver pairing—it's fair to say that Hadjar has made a case for himself in his rookie season. Especially compared to Yuki Tsunoda and Liam Lawson. Currently, the choice seems to be between these three; putting Arvid Lindblad directly in Formula 1's hottest seat would be audacious, even by Red Bull standards.

Hadjar has truly earned serious consideration. And it's hard to see how Tsunoda could possibly top that. One or two wins before the Mexican Grand Prix, the likely deciding point, would be helpful. But how realistic is that? Hardly more likely than Hadjar taking another podium. There's not much to suggest Tsunoda is close to a breakthrough.

However, a clear solution has still not been found. Even after such an impressive rookie performance: Is Hadjar truly a top-team driver ready? Hardly. To arrive at Red Bull truly prepared, another year or two with the sister team would do him good. Franz Tost would probably see it the same way. Leaving Tsunoda in the cockpit would also be questionable: too little performance, and above all, too little development.

And Lawson? Has he shown enough to earn a second chance in Red Bull's A team? Pierre Gasly didn't get that chance, despite taking one win and two more podiums with the sister team. So the answer is likely "no."

This essentially boils down to the decision for Red Bull: keep Tsunoda – or replace him with Hadjar.

Why the "samples" are not so easy

"Clean samples," explained Laurent Mekies at Monza, are needed to properly assess Tsunoda in the upcoming races. But these samples are precisely what's missing. In 14 races with Red Bull, Tsunoda hasn't been able to complete a single one completely convincingly. And so, despite Mekies' composure, he's running out of time while testing the patience of his bosses.

His task, of course, wasn't easy either. After just two races, he had to step up to Verstappen's side. And this is precisely where the fundamental problem with Red Bull's recent decisions becomes apparent: a lack of benchmarks.

How much of Tsunoda's initial problems were due to the fact that the car was one only Verstappen could handle? How much of an influence did different specifications have? Tsunoda said even Marko underestimated this factor.

Paul Monaghan, however, downplayed it at Zandvoort: "It's nice that we were finally able to sort it out," he said, "but it wasn't as big as many people thought." Until then, Tsunoda had always used an older underbody specification than the team's number 1.

Qualifying at Spa, where Tsunoda shared the same underbody as Verstappen for the first time, seemed to confirm his view: seventh place on the grid. A similar story happened in Hungary, where he was less than two-tenths of a second behind Verstappen despite being eliminated in Q1. At Monza, he was again close in Q1 and Q2, but the gap grew in Q3. However, he was first on the track there and had no slipstream.

There are no "clean samples" when drivers are constantly falling behind and are measured against the best in the field.

Were Lawson and Tsunoda overwhelmed?

Was Lawson ready for this challenge after eleven Grands Prix? Of course not. On top of that, he wasn't even given enough time to prove himself. Two races on unfamiliar tracks, knowing that his dream job could disappear at any moment – ​​that was hardly a fair chance. Much was expected, but he delivered less. But the expectations were probably unrealistic anyway.

The pressure factor also plays a role. Tsunoda spent four years in the junior team, only to see Red Bull prioritize Lawson over him. Afterward, the message was essentially: "You really wanted it—now prove it!"

In recent years, Red Bull has simply thrown its young drivers into the deep end without letting them learn how to swim. Almost all of them have drowned, as expected.

What could be different in 2026

In 2026, however, the situation is somewhat different. That's precisely what Hadjar was alluding to on Thursday in Monza: "To be honest, at the beginning of the year I was asked if I was ready to jump into the Red Bull cockpit," he said. "And my answer was no. Because it just doesn't make sense now."

"But 2026 is a different question because it's a complete new start for the team. Then there won't be any more talk of a second car. Everyone will start from scratch. It's all about developing the car in the right direction. And I find that exciting."

A good argument. New rules should defuse the "tailored to Max" issue and give Hadjar the opportunity to get to know a new car together with Verstappen. If he gets that spot, he would have more influence on its development than under the current regulations. The RB21 is the way it is because Verstappen is the clear reference point. Next year, that should carry less weight.

And yet, sharing a cockpit alongside Verstappen is a mammoth task. His strength lies not only in his natural speed, but also in his ability to perfectly develop the car, supported by a well-coordinated team that has known him for almost ten years.

To even come close to him, you have to be as well prepared as possible. With only one season of Formula 1 experience—a little less than Gasly back then, a little more than Albon and Lawson, and roughly the same as Kvyat—Hadjar would likely not be adequately prepared.

Marko's remark that Hadjar is "different" sounds hardly more convincing than the justifications for previous promotions. Lawson was supposed to be mentally strong enough, Tsunoda mature enough. They haven't proven it on the track.

Hadjar: That's why he needs another year in Faenza

The isolated question is: Would Hadjar benefit from another year (or two) in the Racing Bulls cockpit? The answer is clearly yes. Moving to the top of Red Bull now would mean he'd have to play catch-up again, under even greater pressure.

Some argue that Gasly and Albon built good careers for themselves even after their time at Red Bull. That's true. But it didn't help Red Bull itself. Furthermore, there are no reliable comparison data between Lawson, Hadjar, and Tsunoda. Even when they were teammates for a time, there were always disruptive factors.

Nothing conclusive can be drawn from Lawson's role as Ricciardo's backup in the fall of 2023. Neither can anything be drawn from two Tsunoda vs. Hadjar races. Nor from Lawson's demotion to the junior team, where he had to familiarize himself with a new car. A truly "clean sample" would require at least a full season.

As strange as it may sound, the only way out might be to finally stop constantly rotating drivers and instead give them time. Time to prove themselves without going under. Time to develop. Even if that means keeping the struggling Tsunoda for another year.

Hajar said in Baku on Thursday that he had "an idea" where his journey might lead, "but I don't know." Asked whether he had read all the media reports, he simply replied: "I don't care. Really. I was finally home for five days in a row. I can think of something better to do than scroll through Instagram."

Hadjar's podium at Zandvoort was a fantastic achievement. But immediately before that, he lacked consistency: Lawson had scored more points in most European races. Hadjar still has a lot to learn. And Red Bull Racing isn't the right place for that.

Yours, Oleg Karpov