Seven bad F1 2025 predictions we regret already

Five rounds into F1 2025, and it is already becoming clear that some of us need to invest in a better crystal ball.

From a Lewis Hamilton title challenge, to Liam Lawson delivering the goods for Red Bull, it is time to look back at the F1 2025 predictions which have already left us with egg on our faces. Do try not to laugh too hard!

So much for a Ferrari championship double

by Michelle Foster

Oh Ferrari, dear Ferrari, wherefore art thou Ferrari? Not at the front of the field, that’s for sure.

Can you believe I fell for it? Again! The 2024 gains were followed by pre-season whispers that Ferrari had found half a second with the SF-25.

Hype created hype, expectations built on expectations and dreams of glory clearly blinded me as I gazed into my red-tinted crystal ball and proudly proclaimed: Charles Leclerc! Ferrari!

Such was my confidence, I declared, “Welcome to the start of the Charles Leclerc era!”

Alas, I was wrong, very wrong. You’d think I would’ve learned by now.

Ferrari have not delivered a championship-winning car in the SF-25, it’s barely quick enough to reach the podium.

They’ve swapped last year’s qualifying pace and race struggles for qualifying struggles and race, well, semi-pace. The car faces significant technical issues, ride height sensitivity being just one of those.

And given one side of the garage believes there’s “no fix” to his issues, well, it’s not looking great for Ferrari. It’s also not looking great for my prediction of a championship double for the Italian stable.

So, another year goes by without a Ferrari championship trophy. No Drivers’ crown to wear. No Constructors’ loot to spend. I wonder today if there’ll even be a flag hoisted outside the Maranello HQ.

Oh well, there’s always next year. Definitely next year!

“I am stupid” – Charles Leclerc to win the world title

by Sam Cooper

In my defence, picking Charles Leclerc as my championship winner was at least based on some facts.

He ended 2024 strongly, fishing on the podium in the final two races, and there was a lot of positive talk coming from Ferrari on how the SF-25 was going to fix a lot of problems the 2024 car had.

I also backed him to have the beating of Hamilton, something that has at least proven true, and suspected the arrival of the Briton would spur Leclerc onto even better performances. Fast forward just a couple months and he already looks out of the title running.

In mine and his defence, I don’t particularly blame Leclerc. In our power rankings, which takes a driver’s average rating for across the season, he is fifth – reflecting the consistent year he has had but simply put, the Ferrari is not quick enough.

I will go down with this ship and say he still wins it but that 52-point gap is already looking rather large.

Lewis Hamilton title number eight on hold

by Jamie Woodhouse

So, in my defence, half of my big Lewis Hamilton prediction for this year could end up being correct at this rate, but for totally the wrong reason.

When I backed Hamilton to win the record eighth World Championship this year, I did so after settling my self-debate over whether we last year saw the start of the Hamilton decline, or if it was merely an absence of motivation to be fixed at Ferrari. I backed the wrong horse!

Yet to finish a grand prix ahead of Leclerc, talking of “no fix” and a “painful” season to come, and quipping he needs a “brain transplant” to gel with the Ferrari, while it is still relatively early days in the season, those are the comments of a broken man.

Here’s to hoping Hamilton can turn it around, but at this rate, my prediction that Hamilton retires at the end of the season and is replaced by Oliver Bearman looks far more realistic, without the eighth title in-hand of course!

F1 2025 head-to-head standings

👉 F1 2025: Head-to-head race statistics between team-mates

👉 F1 2025: Head-to-head qualifying statistics between team-mates

Liam Lawson’s slow start proves me wrong

by Thomas Maher

So confident were Red Bull in Liam Lawson’s ability to take a step forward as Max Verstappen’s teammate this season, I was convinced the Kiwi would take to life at Milton Keynes with aplomb.

But, alas, the RB21 had other ideas – the car’s knife-edge nature was evident as it very quickly stripped Lawson of his ability to do what he does best in driving quickly and fearlessly.

Almost as quickly as it started, Red Bull opted for change by turning to the vastly more experienced Yuki Tsunoda to partner Verstappen after the Chinese Grand Prix, with concerns for Lawson’s mental fortitude and his career at the forefront of everyone’s minds.

The switch back to Racing Bulls does appear to have rekindled Lawson’s confidence as he is starting to find his rhythm once again, but I had thought far more was on the cards for this year – maybe, once that confidence is rebuilt, the success I had anticipated for Lawson will come back around very quickly.

Oscar Piastri: The title contender nobody considered

by Oliver Harden

Oscar Piastri is owed an apology.

It first occurred to me in the aftermath of his victory in Baku last year that Piastri was fast emerging as McLaren’s best best for a 2025 title charge – so why didn’t I commit to it?

Partly because I assumed that this year would come 12 months too soon for Oscar and partly because Lando Norris’s 2024 peaks – Zandvoort, Singapore, Abu Dhabi – strongly indicated that he would still be the one to lead McLaren this year.

So after spending the last two years boring everyone sh – er, witless – in PF1’s conclusions about how Lando would soon struggle to contain Oscar, when it came down to predictions time I (and there’s no other word for it, I’m afraid) bottled it and went with Max.

A lesson in trusting your gut instinct.

And my other predictions about Lewis Hamilton being reborn, beating Charles Leclerc and scoring the same number of points Carlos Sainz did in 2024?

Well, the less said about all that, the better…

Yuki Tsunoda to become Aston Martin reserve driver

by Henry Valantine

Now, in hindsight, how many of us really thought Liam Lawson would be moved back to Racing Bulls after just two races?

This prediction technically still has a chance of coming true, should Red Bull look to part ways with Tsunoda in a driver market where viable seats appear sparse for 2026, and his strong links to Honda remain.

However, the crucial thing here is that Tsunoda now has his destiny in his own hands. The early signs have been decent enough for him at Red Bull and, if he can build on it, this may well be a case of egg meeting face and an apology heading to Yuki.

Max Verstappen, I never should have doubted you

by Elizabeth Blackstock

I made a lot of bold and audacious claims about the capabilities of Lewis Hamilton and Scuderia Ferrari this year, and for that, I apologize. I can only claim that I let my hype get the best of me — but my colleagues have already covered this topic in detail!

Instead, I’d like to point out how poorly my “it’ll be a two-win season for Verstappen” prediction has aged already. I was firmly, decisively ready to believe that the Red Bull driver would simply flounder in 2025, and while things haven’t been easy, I think a mere two wins was perhaps a bit ungenerous.

The reigning champion already has one win in the first five races, at the Japanese Grand Prix. He’s third in the championship thanks to his uncanny ability to finish on the podium, even in the RB21. With 20 races still remaining, I think it would be foolish to assume he could only secure one more win.

No, Max is better than that. He’s getting two more wins, at the very least. I’d even go so far as to say we could expect a solid five victories before the F1 2025 season is out.

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