How Ferrari could have secured an Italian GP pole, revealed by data

After a weekend to forget in the Netherlands, the first sessions on track gave Tifosi hope that Ferrari could still deliver a strong result at their home Italian Grand Prix.

However, the feeling remains that qualifying at Monza fell short of what was truly possible, and that Ferrari’s drivers will now find it very difficult to reach the result they’re aiming for: Victory. But could the Italian team have achieved more? Let’s explore this question through telemetry data.

Was a better Monza qualifying in the cards for Ferrari?

Even after the very first hour of running at the legendary Monza circuit, Ferrari looked like a rejuvenated team with a fresh sense of purpose. Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc occupied the top two spots on the timing sheets, and the general atmosphere within the team appeared significantly improved compared to the previous weekend — at least from what we could tell as viewers.

Strong lap times continued in FP2 and FP3, where Leclerc managed to be the second-fastest driver on the grid. Given that the SF-25 performs much better on tracks of this type — and considering that this is Ferrari’s home race — expectations understandably grew.

The Italian track is known for its extremely high average speeds, which is why each team typically develops a specific rear wing just for this race. But to be as well prepared as possible for the technically unique Monza circuit, Ferrari’s engineers decided on a rather uncommon move.

The team chose to save some time and resources by bringing a slightly modified version of last year’s rear wing. This would save the engineering team both time and aerodynamic simulation capacity, which could then be directed toward the development of other components.

That said, we all know how well Ferrari performed at Monza last year — so why change something that has already proven to work?

The outcome was a notable top-speed advantage: during qualifying, only Sauber managed to clock higher trap speeds.

Thanks to this strong straight-line performance, both Ferrari drivers found themselves in the hunt for pole or at least a front-row start. After the first flying laps in Q3, Leclerc was second-fastest — just 0.084 seconds behind Verstappen.

Comparing the laps, it’s clear that the straight-line speed advantage helped Leclerc gain time on every straight. He had a better run through the first chicane, gaining a tenth, but Verstappen clawed it back through the Turn 4–5 section.

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The critical moment came at Turn 9, where Max secured a small victory, not due to flawless execution, but because of a slight error from Leclerc. The Monegasque driver went slightly too wide and took too much of the kerb, which cost him valuable tenths.

After heading back to the garage, it was time for one last attempt at a flying lap in Q3. This is where things started to go wrong for Ferrari. Neither Leclerc nor Hamilton managed to improve their time, while the rest of the frontrunners all found time on their second runs.

So what exactly was the issue?

In Leclerc’s case, the problem came mainly in Turn 1 and the final corner. While onboard footage doesn’t reveal anything particularly dramatic, telemetry tells a different story: Leclerc was a full tenth slower through Turn 1 in his second run. The rest of the lap remained largely the same, with no major variation.

At Parabolica, Leclerc also lost some time. On his first attempt, he exited the corner with much better acceleration, which gave him a higher top speed along the main straight.

This can be seen in the image below, where Leclerc’s first flying lap attempt in Q3 is marked in white. Interestingly, throttle input data shows virtually no difference between the two laps. Based on this, we can conclude that Leclerc simply didn’t have the same level of grip in his second Q3 lap as he had earlier.

Hamilton’s story was almost identical. In his second Q3 attempt, he lost more than a tenth compared to his first flying lap. Although he was faster in other parts of the circuit, that initial deficit proved crucial — especially with how close the field was in qualifying.

And when qualifying is this tight, even the smallest details are enough to take you out of contention for the front row.

Would a tow down the main straight have helped?

Because Monza’s main straight is so long, running in another car’s slipstream can offer a major advantage. Some estimates suggest it can be worth up to three-tenths of a second — a huge gain considering how narrow the gaps were in this session.

This theory gained traction due to Hamilton’s five-place grid penalty. No matter how well he qualified, he would be starting further down the order — which would make him the perfect driver to give Leclerc a tow. It wouldn’t be the first time Hamilton played a supportive role for a teammate on track.

However, Ferrari chose not to pursue this strategy, and we’ll never know how much of a difference it could have made. What we do know is that if you subtract 0.3 seconds from Leclerc’s best lap, he would have taken pole position.

It seems that this time, Ferrari were more concerned with avoiding unnecessary complications than risking it all for a shot at victory in their home Grand Prix.

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