Hometown disappointment for Tsunoda? Six bold Japanese GP predictions

All the buzz heading into the Japanese Grand Prix has centered on the Red Bull promotion of Yuki Tsunoda — but can he impress at his home track? And will we see a new winner this season?

Our writers on PlanetF1.com share their bold predictions for the upcoming race.

Yuki Tsunoda to crash at least once and exit in Q1

By Oliver Harden

There is much interest and expectation surrounding Yuki Tsunoda’s Red Bull debut at his home race. But beyond the name, what reason is there to expect anything to change in that second seat?

As bad as it was for Liam Lawson in Australia and China, his brief spell at Red Bull at least did not descend into a crash-a-thon.

As much as Red Bull may try to downplay it, Tsunoda is under pressure to start well here.

And that’s before you consider the scrutiny that comes with his home race at a circuit lined with gravel traps, all just waiting to suck you in at the esses, the Degners, the final corner.

Red Bull always cited Tsunoda’s questionable temperament as a reason to overlook him before now. With great regret, their gut feeling about him will be proven correct at Suzuka.

Keep an eye also on Andrea Kimi Antonelli, whose driving style suggests he will be a joy to watch through the esses. Don’t rule out the boy wonder announcing his arrival Verstappen-style with a top-three slot on the grid.

A Ferrari upset in Japan

By Michelle Foster

While I would love nothing more than to predict Liam Lawson outscores the Red Bull drivers, Max and Yuki, this weekend – or even wins the Grand Prix from lights-to-flag, I fear the punch-drunk boxing New Zealander may need an outing or two to lick his wounds.

And fair play to him, wouldn’t you also need a moment to gather yourself after losing your dream job less than a month after starting?

So, my prediction for the Chinese Grand Prix is Charles Leclerc’s first Grand Prix win of this season.

Suzuka belonged to Mercedes pre-Covid, six wins on the trot of which four went to Lewis Hamilton. Post-Covid, it was all Max Verstappen. But unless Red Bull pulled a rabbit out of the hat between China and Japan, the Ferrari is the faster of the two cars (disqualifications and strategy beep-ups aside) and no one knows how to win at Suzuka quite like Hamilton.

Between the Ferrari SF-25’s pace and Hamilton’s know-how assisting in the set-up of the car, Leclerc will capitalise to win the F1 2025 Japanese Grand Prix. One further, both Ferraris will be on the podium.

Dig deeper into Japanese Grand Prix history:

👉 The title-deciding Japanese GP that almost never happened

👉 The greatest victory of the modern era? The 2005 Japanese Grand Prix revisited

Yuki Tsunoda to debut with a podium for Red Bull

By Henry Valantine

Now, this may be a long shot, but given just how many racing laps Tsunoda has taken in around Suzuka in his career, and the way he’s spoken about the RB21’s handling in the simulator, could we see Yuki Tsunoda go straight onto the podium?

I would argue, if he’s going to do it anywhere straight off the bat, it would be his home race.

This might be me being an idealist on his behalf, but Tsunoda really does have a lot of experience at Suzuka. In a sponsor video earlier this week, he said “it’s the track I most drove in my single-seater career”, so if anything will help ease the transition to Red Bull, it’ll be a circuit he knows like the back of his hand.

If he’s able to strike a tune from the RB21 – that is a big ‘if’, admittedly, considering it’s his first race for Red Bull – I don’t see why he can’t follow in the footsteps of Aguri Suzuki and Kamui Kobayashi by taking a home podium for Japan.

Max Verstappen takes a win

By Jamie Woodhouse

This prediction didn’t work for China, but I am ready to give it another go. Max Verstappen will win the Japanese Grand Prix.

While the RB21 upgrades are yet to come, I reckon that time in Milton Keynes to sit down with the engineers, plus the frustration over having Yuki Tsunoda alongside him instead of Liam Lawson from this point on, will propel Verstappen to a statement, Japanese Grand Prix-winning drive.

Oscar Piastri will take the championship lead

By Elizabeth Blackstock

At the moment, McLaren driver Oscar Piastri sits fourth in the World Drivers’ Championship standings with 34, just 10 points in arrears of his teammate up in the lead. This is the weekend he vaults to the top of the charts.

The level-headed Piastri put together a strong victory at the Chinese GP, highlighting once again how strong the McLaren outfit is — but while Lando Norris likely entered the season as a title favorite thanks to his performance in 2024, Piastri has proven to be an equally capable competitor.

I think we’re going to see him upset his teammate and assume the title lead — likely with another commanding win.

Read next: The truth behind the different RB21s driven by Verstappen and Lawson