A shock win or end of a McLaren era? Four Monaco GP predictions

Formula 1 has descended and is ready for one of the most iconic sporting events in the world, the Monaco Grand Prix.

Max Verstappen heads into this race weekend of adrenaline, glitz and glamour with the momentum after an impressive victory last time out at Imola, one which reignited his title hopes, but who will thrive and who will falter in Monaco. Our bold predictions are in.

A Ferrari podium… courtesy of Charles Leclerc

By Jamie Woodhouse

Ferrari salvaged some pride in front of the tifosi at Imola, as Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc recovered from the agony of Q2 elimination to cross the line P4 and P6 respectively.

That only slightly aided morale in what has been a disappointing campaign so far for Ferrari, but after breaking his Monaco curse last year, I’m backing Leclerc to give Ferrari something to smile about this weekend.

We are seven rounds into F1 2025 and only once has a Ferrari made the podium – Leclerc claiming P3 in Saudi Arabia – and I reckon he will double his and Ferrari’s tally in front of his home crowd, going one better with a runner-up Monaco GP result.

End of an era for McLaren

By Mat Coch

Lewis Hamilton was the last McLaren driver to claim victory in Monaco, an accomplishment achieved back in 2008.

It’s been a barren spell for the Woking squad since then, but its form in recent years has seen it return to the front of the F1 pack and, this year, head to the Principality as favourites.

A year ago, Oscar Piastri was second to the flag having chased Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc throughout.

Then, McLaren’s charge was only just beginning as it ran down Red Bull in the Constructors’ Championship to take that crown at the end of the year.

This time, the papaya operation is the established benchmark, with five wins from seven races. Statistically, it’s the strongest bet heading into the weekend.

But more than that, the circuit characteristics seem to favour the McLaren more than its direct rivals.

Ferrari, victors last year, has openly admitted that its car isn’t great in low-speed corners. The same is true of Mercedes, while at Red Bull Helmut Marko has suggested the Emilia Romagna GP pace Verstappen displayed was likely the result of the faster corners prevalent in Imola.

There’s not much in the way of high-speed content in Monaco, a venue perhaps most like Miami (at a stretch) than any other circuit we’ve visited thus far in F1 2025 – and we all know what happened there.

Without a wheel being turned in the streets of Monte Carlo, McLaren has to be favourite to score its first win at the postcard circuit in almost 20 years.

Half of the rookies to crash out

By Sam Cooper

For the rookies trying to get used to Formula 1, Monaco stands as one of the toughest tests.

The narrow streets are unforgiving even to the most seasoned veterans, which is why I can see one or two rookies in the wall this weekend.

Franco Colapinto arrives with pressure on his shoulders after his Imola return did not go to plan while every rookie has shown they are fallible.

Each is under pressure to stay in the seat and I think for some, that may just tip over into a mistake and an unwelcome impact with the wall.

Andrea Kimi Antonelli to win it (kind of) or bin it. Maybe both

By Oliver Harden

It’ll be fascinating to observe how Andrea Kimi Antonelli, who drives with such finesse in the slow corners but lives on the ragged edge in quick stuff according to those with a keen eye for driving techniques, gets on during his first appearance in Monaco.

It is here, after all, that legends are made and stars are born.

Don’t rule out Antonelli producing the kind of lap that saw him start the sprint race on pole in Miami, potentially enough to secure a spot in the top three on the grid here.

But also don’t be too surprised if it ends in tears at some point either.

There’s a barrier out there – probably the one on the exit of the Swimming Pool, where most of the big mistakes happen in Monaco these days – with his name on it.

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