Chinese automakers are gaining ground: by 2030 they will have a 13% market share in Europe.

ROME – While the European car market is declining (-2% in 2025, but slightly recovering in the coming years) and electric vehicles are sluggish (15% in Europe and 5% in Italy), still falling short of the Green Deal targets, Chinese vehicle sales in Europe are becoming increasingly aggressive. From 2024 to 2030, Chinese sales will grow by 800,000 units, reaching 13% of the European market in 2030, and 10% in Italy. All this will be to the detriment of European manufacturers, who will see their market share in Europe decline from 62% in 2024 to 58% in 2030.

These are some of the findings from AlixPartners' updated Global Automotive Outlook, presented at the event "Automotive, what future – React decisively: enough words!", promoted by the #FORUMAutoMotive motor mobility movement, marking its tenth anniversary. The event focused on the Green Deal and the opportunity, now shared by growing sectors of politics and the automotive industry, to address the challenges included in the European plan with great pragmatism, considering different methods and timeframes.

Presenting the updated data, Emanuele Cordone, Director of AlixPartners' Automotive Practice, highlighted how European and American manufacturers are experiencing a decline in profitability, while Chinese players are improving their margins. In Italy, rising vehicle prices, the primary cause of the market's failure to return to pre-Covid levels, are driving an increase in sales of Chinese products, which, according to AlixPartners estimates, will rise from 6% in 2025 to 10% in 2030. Meanwhile, European vehicle sales will decline from 64% this year to 61% in 2030. On the production front, reaching the stated annual target of one million units would currently take more than two years. Factory utilization, which decreased by approximately 20 percentage points in Europe from 2017 to 2025, has instead fallen by 40 percentage points in Italy, reaching unsustainable levels.

"In Italy," Cordone stated, "emissions from new cars sold have remained stable since 2017, but the fleet continues to age, and the share of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) remains low at around 10% in the first half of 2025." However, growth prospects can be glimpsed in company fleets, where the share of BEVs and PHEVs "is already higher than the general market and could receive a further boost from the new tax incentive scheme planned for 2025." With regard to BEV diffusion, Italy continues to lag behind the main European markets, with a share estimated at 5% in mid-2025, compared to 20% in the United Kingdom, 17% in Germany, 16% in France, and 7% in Spain. Furthermore, Italy is among the EU countries with the lowest residual value of BEVs (32% versus 50% in the United Kingdom). Internal combustion engine vehicles), but this "could open up new opportunities in the used market." Even in the European Union, the share of electric vehicles, estimated at 15% at mid-year, is modest. However, many new battery-powered models are expected to be launched within the next two years, which will increase consumer offerings by 90% between 2024 and 2027. However, the price difference with corresponding internal combustion engine models remains significant (+53%) in the AB segments. According to the AlixPartners study, electric vehicles with range extenders (REEVs), by helping to overcome charging anxiety, could play an important role in the spread of electric vehicles in the Old Continent. In Germany, Europe's largest car market, 83% of consumers appreciate electric vehicles with range extenders. Regardless of the type of vehicle they own, German consumers find REEVs more attractive than BEVs. Indeed, those most attracted to Reevs are owners of BEVs (53%), while the highest percentage of detractors of Reevs compared to BEVs are owners of internal combustion vehicles (17%).