Who slept the worst last night: Christian Horner

Max Verstappen is actually a reliable guarantee that the "Oranjes" can celebrate their summer party at Spielberg. In 2021, he won both Grands Prix at the Red Bull Ring, in 2022 he finished second, in 2023 he triumphed from pole, and in 2024 he won at least the F1 sprint on Saturday. The last real zero happened at the "coronavirus season opener" in 2020, when he retired with an electrical failure. At the time, it was a severe blow to Red Bull, because Helmut Marko and Co. realized early on that after years of Mercedes dominance, the world championship title might not be possible again.

On Sunday, it happened again, and this time the party was over after the first lap. Verstappen now trails world championship leader Oscar Piastri by 61 points. A deficit the likes of which no driver in Formula 1 history has ever closed before becoming world champion. It's no wonder, then, that Marko has practically abandoned his dream of defending his title after the failed 2025 home race. Kimi Antonelli has arguably knocked Verstappen out of the world championship. The points deficit is one thing. McLaren's dominant performance is another.

The campsites around the Ring had already become quiet when Christian Horner sat down with a few journalists after the race to try to explain the Red Bull crisis. One of his analyses was: It's not the staff's fault.

"We're at the end of a regulatory cycle. I think we're limited by some of the tools at our disposal. But it's essentially the same team that designed a car 18 months ago that won every Grand Prix except one. They didn't suddenly all become idiots overnight," he says.

Context: What Horner is hiding

A statement that cannot be left standing without additional context. It may be true that the core of the approximately 850 employees in Milton Keynes (at Red Bull Racing and Red Bull Technology) is still the same. But some key figures—and Horner elegantly omits this in his briefing—have indeed left the team in recent years.

The brain drain began in 2022 with Dan Fallows, the head of aerodynamics, leaving for Aston Martin. In 2023, Rob Marshall, the chief designer, left for McLaren. When Marshall implemented the first updates, McLaren returned to winning ways.

In 2024, Will Courtenay, a key figure in racing strategy, announced his departure from McLaren (effective at the end of 2025) . He was followed shortly thereafter by Jonathan Wheatley, now Team Principal at Sauber/Audi. And, last but not least, Adrian Newey – the brilliant technical mastermind whose help would have made Red Bull's great triumphs in Formula 1 impossible in their current form.

Things have been simmering behind the scenes of the Red Bull Formula 1 program for years. There was talk of a power struggle with Horner and Milton Keynes on one side and Marko and Fuschl on the other, flanked by Jos Verstappen. In Saudi Arabia in 2024, the conflict threatened to escalate completely. Higher levels at Red Bull had to intervene to get the rivals to work together again. A relationship of convenience. No longer a great love affair.

Jos Verstappen warned at the time that the team was in danger of being "torn apart. This can't go on." And external observers like Ralf Schumacher predicted that Red Bull would descend into mediocrity in the aftermath of the "Horner affair" (which, incidentally, has yet to be fully resolved legally).

Fact check: What happened to Ralf Schumacher’s prediction?

One year later, the facts are clear: Ralf was right. Of Red Bull Racing's 162 points, 155 go to Verstappen and only seven to the second car. Or, to put it another way: If you eliminate Verstappen from the equation and mentally double the points of the second car, Red Bull Racing would be second to last in the Constructors' Championship with 14 points. Only Alpine (11) would be worse off.

Seen in this light, Ralf's prediction was actually quite positive. Without Verstappen, Red Bull Racing would not have plummeted into mediocrity, but into total insignificance.

There's no question that Christian Horner shares some of the responsibility for this. Ultimately, the boss always takes responsibility for the success or failure of any company. This is no different in Formula 1 than in football, where even the best coach is usually sacked at some point when the results on the field are no longer satisfactory.

Horner: His historical merits are undisputed

If Horner isn't sleeping well now, it's important to emphasize: His historic contributions to Red Bull in Formula 1 are undisputed. Dietrich Mateschitz and Helmut Marko gave him the chance of a lifetime when he was still a nobody. And he took it. Whether you like him or not, there's no question that the "Horner Way," which somehow suited the Red Bull brand quite well, played a significant role in successes of historic significance.

But there are those who complain that Horner's success eventually went to his head, and that's one reason why bright minds from Newey to Marshall have set out to seek their fortunes elsewhere. And after the death of Dietrich Mateschitz in October 2022, he is said to have carefully convinced the Thai majority owners that the departures weren't all that bad. As long as he was there, he would sort things out.

Is Horner personally or his own work to blame for Red Bull Racing's biggest sporting crisis in years? Probably not. But could the massive brain drain have been prevented if he had given other key figures in the team a little more room to develop? Possibly.

The 51-year-old is on the ropes. The support from Thailand, which some on the Austrian side of the company were already beginning to feel uneasy about a year ago, is crumbling. Ultimately, the Yoovidhya clan's most important concern is not loyalty to Horner, but the success of the Red Bull brand. Both on the racetrack and in sales of the famous can.

What the F1 launch has to do with the situation

There was a situation at the beginning of this year that initially wasn't given much importance. When Horner was mercilessly booed by the audience during his self-promotion on stage at the big Formula 1 launch in London, "top cop" Oliver Mintzlaff was in the audience. The "Horner affair" hadn't really been on anyone's mind for a long time. But that evening, some within the Red Bull group realized that the unsavory incident with the assistant had left lasting damage.

Max Verstappen has always stayed out of all these political games. He gives the impression that he wants one thing above all else: to win races and world championships with the best car. His contract with Red Bull basically runs until the end of 2028. But even Horner recently suggested that contracts aren't worth the paper they're written on once the love has faded.

I have no doubt that Verstappen would love to keep winning with Red Bull until he retires. As he effusively announced on the radio in Abu Dhabi in 2021: "Can we keep doing this together for another 10, 15 years?"

PK: Why doesn't Verstappen just say "yes"?

On the other hand, he makes little effort to dispel the doubts about his future. He's annoyed by the constant questions about his future. It's just that he's never given them a clear answer.

On Thursday afternoon in Spielberg, during the FIA ​​press conference , I asked him: "Max, will you be driving for Red Bull Racing next year?" I had a feeling I wouldn't get a sensible answer. But I wanted to give him the chance to put the fuss to rest once and for all. He could have simply said "yes." All the rumors would have been put to rest immediately.

Instead, he said: "I don't think we need to talk about it. Should I repeat what I said last year? I don't know. It's always the same answer. [...] It's not something I think about. Just ride well, try to push the performance, and then we'll focus on next year."

Why a change is still unlikely

Personally, I'm not one of those who believe Verstappen will leave Red Bull anytime soon. It may be that his faith in the power unit program in Milton Keynes is waning, and if he had the choice, he'd prefer Mercedes or Honda power in 2026. But next year, everything will be a new game. Even Toto Wolff and Adrian Newey can't give him any sure guarantees of success.

It would be much smarter to honor the loyalty to Red Bull, to the legacy of Dietrich Mateschitz, by staying for at least another year—and then, in the summer of 2026, take another look to see who really handled the new rules best. Because one thing is clear: When a Verstappen knocks, doors open everywhere. Probably even where other drivers are actually under contract.

Especially since Verstappen enjoys freedom at Red Bull that a potential new employer like Mercedes can't offer. Assuming the new energy-saving formula really does get on his nerves as the worst pessimists fear, the best option at Red Bull would be to simply give up and have fun with Red Bull-branded sports cars in other racing series until he gets the urge to get back into Formula 1.

Conversely, it seems inconceivable to me that Verstappen could sign a $150 million contract with Mercedes and then, after a few races, say, "Hey guys, that was nice, but I'm off and now I'm going to race the Nordschleife." Red Bull certainly wouldn't be happy about that either. But he could probably afford that most easily in his sporting homeland, turning it into a win-win sabbatical.

Perhaps Toto Wolff already signed George Russell 's 2026 contract long ago. Perhaps his vague hints , which journalists like me are clamoring for like vultures, are merely a Machiavellian plan to stir up trouble at Red Bull and secretly support Verstappen in strengthening his internal power. He might like to scare his old nemesis Horner a bit. And if Verstappen does eventually leave, he might remember that support.

I know: This is all pretty wild speculation . Whether he'll stay or go is something only Verstappen himself probably knows. And maybe not even he. But it's quite likely that if Verstappen really does leave, Red Bull's downfall will be sealed for good. And if a painful new beginning has to begin, the team boss probably wouldn't be Christian Horner anymore.

By the way: On Monday evenings, starting at 8:30 p.m., I'll be a guest on the Twitch show "Live bei Scheuren." In this call-in format, viewers can call in and discuss things with host Kevin Scheuren and me. And listen to the stories I brought home from the paddock in Spielberg.

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Note: It is in the nature of things that this column reflects my subjective perception. Anyone who disagrees is welcome to discuss it with me on my Facebook page "Formula 1 inside with Christian Nimmervoll." There, you won't primarily find breaking news from the Grand Prix circuit, but rather strictly subjective and sometimes quite biting assessments of the most important developments behind the scenes in Formula 1.