How McLaren can become world champion in Baku and why Red Bull is nervous

(Motorsport-Total.com) - There are still eight races left in the 2025 Formula 1 season, but McLaren can already win the Constructors' World Championship early at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix in Baku: If Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris achieve a one-two victory there, the second title in a row would already be perfect.

A first and third place would also be enough, although victory would not be a prerequisite: the only decisive factor is that Ferrari does not score at least nine more points, Mercedes does not make up eleven points, and Red Bull cannot reduce the gap by 32 points.

Should Ferrari celebrate an unexpected one-two in Baku, McLaren would have to wait until Singapore to celebrate the title. And even if Ferrari only wins with one car and doesn't score points with the other, it wouldn't be enough for McLaren if both drivers finished on the podium.

Mercedes and Red Bull almost without a chance of winning the World Championship

The starting position for Mercedes is significantly more difficult: Assuming both McLaren cars finish in the points, Mercedes would have to win in Baku. The team would also have to finish at least fourth if McLaren doesn't score, or at least sixth and seventh with both cars to mathematically remain in the title fight until Singapore.

Should a McLaren win in Azerbaijan, Mercedes will be out of the title race in any case. Furthermore, should both Mercedes drivers fail to finish on the podium, both McLaren drivers would have to finish outside the top three to keep Mercedes mathematically in contention for the World Championship.

Red Bull, on the other hand, only has theoretical chances of winning the title: Max Verstappen and Yuki Tsunoda would have to score at least 33 points together, while McLaren cannot score any points at the same time to even remain in the race for the constructors' title.

This means that Red Bull must either win or get both cars on the podium if McLaren doesn't finish. Should a McLaren finish fourth in Baku or score at least eleven points by other means, Red Bull's already slim title chances will be gone.

McLaren could break Red Bull record

The Bulls' dream of a Constructors' Championship is as good as over. And not only that: McLaren could even snatch a Formula 1 record from Red Bull this season. If Piastri and Norris continue to drive as strongly as they have so far, McLaren could score more than 900 World Championship points.

Then Red Bull's record from the 2023 season would be history: Back then, Verstappen and Sergio Perez combined for 860 points. McLaren could significantly surpass that. With 389 points still up for grabs, even the 1,000-point mark is theoretically possible.

That's unlikely, however, because for that to happen, McLaren would have to clinch a one-two finish in all remaining races. It's much more realistic that the traditional British team will clinch the Constructors' title in Baku – leaving only the Drivers' Championship to be decided in the final sprint.