Data analysis: Is Lewis Hamilton overrated?

(Motorsport-Total.com) - This is probably not how Lewis Hamilton envisioned his debut at Ferrari. After five race weekends, he may have secured a victory in the sprint race in China, but doubts about the seven-time Formula 1 world champion's pace are growing. The low point so far: the race weekend in Saudi Arabia.

Hamilton narrowly avoided elimination in Q2, missing out by just 0.007 seconds. In Q3, he was a whopping 0.531 seconds behind teammate Charles Leclerc. According to race pace data from our technology partner PACETEQ , which adjusts for various race strategies, Hamilton was around seven-tenths slower than the Monegasque. Only Red Bull and Alpine had such a large gap between teammates this weekend.

Did Ferrari make a mistake by firing Sainz?

It's undoubtedly too early to write Hamilton off after just five races, but a clear trend is emerging. So far this season, he's trailing Leclerc by an average of 0.282 seconds in qualifying, and by an average of 0.384 seconds in the race. By comparison, Carlos Sainz was significantly closer to Leclerc during his four years at Ferrari.

Between 2021 and 2024, Sainz averaged just 0.120 seconds behind Leclerc—making him statistically the best teammate he's ever had. Sebastian Vettel had a deficit of 0.226 seconds in 2019 and 2020, and Marcus Ericsson even averaged 0.620 seconds for Sauber in 2018. Hamilton currently ranks third among Leclerc's teammates, with a gap of 0.282 seconds.

What is the reason for Hamilton’s pace deficit?

Ferrari boss John Elkann won't have signed Hamilton for a high price just to be slower than before. But the Briton has struggled with the SF-25 so far. After the race in Saudi Arabia, he expressed his confusion: "The car is clearly capable of finishing third, and Charles did a great job today, so I can't blame it on the car."

Although Hamilton, at 40, belongs to the older generation of drivers, Fernando Alonso is already 43 – and the Spaniard shows no signs of slowing down. The gap to Lance Stroll has been consistently between three and five tenths in 2023, 2024, and the five race weekends so far in 2025. This shows that Alonso's age hasn't affected his performance so far. So, it shouldn't be a significant factor for Hamilton either.

The introduction of ground-effect cars in 2022 doesn't seem to have played into Hamilton's hands. After the dramatic loss of the 2021 World Championship finale in Abu Dhabi, a break followed – Mercedes got off to a bad start with the new regulations, and in George Russell, a fast teammate joined the team, demonstrating that even a seven-time world champion is beatable.

Mercedes team duels: Was Hamilton ever dominant?

A look at the data confirms this impression: In their shared Mercedes years from 2022 to 2024, George Russell was on average 0.089 seconds faster than Hamilton. Even in previous team duels, Hamilton wasn't always clearly superior: Against Valtteri Bottas (2017 to 2021), he had an average lead of 0.156 seconds, and against Nico Rosberg (2013 to 2016), the advantage was just 0.032 seconds.

Hamilton, with his 104 pole positions, is statistically considered the best qualifier in Formula 1 history, but the truth is that his teammates have regularly beaten him. Between 2013 and 2016, Hamilton secured 35 pole positions, while Rosberg secured 29. Hamilton narrowly won the qualifying duel, 42-36. Against Bottas, the result was more decisive, with pole positions 70-30 and 42-20. Hamilton lost the subsequent duel against Russell, 29-39 and 1-5 in pole positions.

In total, Hamilton took 78 pole positions during his time at Mercedes - his teammates achieved 54 together. The overall duel in qualifying ended 141:105 - so Hamilton was ahead in 57 percent of cases.

Stronger in the race than in qualifying?

Another pattern emerges in the race data: Hamilton appears to be somewhat stronger in race trim than in qualifying. The gaps to Rosberg and Russell are slightly better in the race, although not significantly. On the other hand, Hamilton had Bottas more clearly under control on Sundays – primarily due to his better management of tire wear.

The Finn also struggled with this issue later at Sauber against Guanyu Zhou: Often ahead in qualifying, but usually on equal terms in the race. Overall, Hamilton was ahead in about 70 percent of races for Mercedes, significantly more often than in qualifying.

Statistically speaking, Lewis Hamilton is the most successful driver in Formula 1 history. But the numbers also prove that his teammates were never too far behind during their years together – especially not Rosberg or Russell. Leclerc could be the next to shatter the Hamilton myth, as the numbers increasingly call into question his supposed inviolability. A final judgment would be premature at this point, however – perhaps his breakthrough with Ferrari is closer than it seems.

A comprehensive data analysis of the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix is ​​available on the Formel1.de YouTube channel . There, PACETEQ data expert Kevin Hermann also explains whether it would have been strategically wiser for Max Verstappen to let Oscar Piastri pass him immediately after the start—and thus avoid the five-second penalty.