Global car market may not grow any more in the next ten years: study

Let's not fool ourselves: the crisis in the automotive world is neither temporary nor fleeting and the problem of the duties wanted by Trump is only one of many, perhaps not even the most serious. This is what Gianluca Di Loreto, partner of the strategic consulting firm Bain & Company , thinks, based on an in-depth study, and he presented his conclusions on the current and future state of the automotive industry during the annual conference of Aniasa , the National Association of the Car Rental, Sharing Mobility and Automotive Digital Industry. For Di Loreto, in fact, the global automotive market will not grow for a long time, at least for the next ten years. After the boom that saw it literally explode , going from 56 million units in 2001 to 73 in 2010, up to 94 million in 2017-2018, driven by strong Chinese growth , volumes, already down to 90 million in 2019, will settle between now and the end of the current decade at around 95-97 million , with an average global annual increase of no more than 0.2%. And the most serious thing is the " decoupling " that has now occurred since 2019 between the positive trend of global GDP, in slow but constant recovery, and vehicle production: while once the two indicators went hand in hand, now there is a marked gap between them, which translates into stagnation or recession in the global automotive industry.

So what is happening in this sector? In the period 2001-2017, explains Di Loreto, despite the substantial saturation of historical markets such as Europe and North America, Asia was the driving force behind car production , with growth of 7.4% in the countries that occupy the southern part of that continent and as much as 16.6% in China. The study by Bain & Co. instead predicts that between now and 2030 , Europe and North America will record a contraction in their volumes (between 0.4 and 1.2%), as will Japan and Korea; Southern Asia will grow by 2.7%, while China will remain substantially stationary, accumulating minimal increases, in the order of 0.3%. By 2028 , Europe will lose 15 million vehicle sales and North America 7.5 million: these are forecasts that should make many manufacturers think.

If we analyze, as Di Loreto did, the geographical distribution of sales, we see that the major German manufacturers are heavily dependent on the Chinese market : Volkswagen sold 41% of its production there in 2024, Audi 39%, Mercedes 31%, BMW 32%. Beijing is instead a marginal market for the French and Italian industries in the sector (Renault and Stellantis), which concentrate 45 to 83% of their sales in Europe, and for the American ones (Ford, Chevrolet, Jeep as brands), which place 59 to 67% of sales in their continent of origin. The saturation of the Chinese market , together with the stagnation of the European one and a possible closure to imports of the American one due to duties, foresee a very difficult situation for all manufacturers, but even more serious for the German ones, unbalanced as they are towards the large Asian country: the risks for their factories in the Old Continent are high. In 2019, in fact, the installed production capacity in Germany was 9.7 million vehicles , with real utilization equal to 78%; in 2025, the capacity is 11.2 million and the utilization is only 57%, which could drop to 56% in 2032. Already this year, Mercedes has only exploited 55% of its potential , BMW and Volkswagen 58%, Tesla 61%; and things are no better for Stellantis, stuck at 48%, and Toyota, in turn at 58%. How long will manufacturers be able to sustain such percentages of unutilization of their production potential? And how much will their balance sheets be affected? In the end, concludes Di Loreto, considering that more than half of the margins of the German manufacturers came from the Chinese market , the real problem of the car is not the transition to electric mobility, nor should duties be the cause of fear: the real crisis has its origins in Beijing and (enormous) surroundings. Something that, incidentally, does not scare American manufacturers, accustomed to supporting themselves more with the domestic market, nor Japanese and Korean ones, who have been able to manage the geographical distribution of their sales in a more balanced way.

Bain's study also wanted to investigate, as usual in recent years, the mobility habits of Italians , based on a statistically significant survey sample. The use of the car remains central to travel and is also growing significantly compared to recent years: in 2024, 80% of the sample revealed that they use it more than three times a week, therefore habitually. While public transport remains stable, the use of scooters is decreasing, the occasional use of car sharing and taxis is decreasing, and those of bicycles and bike sharing remain at a good level (but always as an occasional and non-recurring method). The car, therefore, is widely used, but few people buy it: the statement " I have not considered buying a new car " rose from 57 to 62% of the sample between 2023 and 2024. The consequence of this attitude is measured in a contraction of the market, in the increase in the average age of the fleet in circulation (which now approaches 13 years) and in an increase in emissions. The fault lies in the excessively high prices which, among other things, favor the interest in competitive proposals from Chinese manufacturers, recently appearing on our market. But there is another interesting aspect of these dynamics: the killing of diesel, whose market share has collapsed from 56% in 2015 to 10% in the first quarter of this year, has not brought benefits for the environment, limited to the area of ​​CO2 emissions. The average emissions of cars sold in 2024 were 119.1 g/km of CO2, compared to 108.3 in 2020: in fact, electric and plug-in hybrids have little impact, stuck at between 4.3 and 5.2% of registrations. And the growth of BEVs has now also stopped in other European countries, at levels that are higher than ours, but have long been stuck at the same values.