Car market in crisis, -17% registrations in June. The brands that are collapsing the most

The 17.52% drop is not just a numerical value, but the concrete expression of a crisis that has its roots in various factors: the exhaustion of the incentive push, regulatory confusion, a still limping energy transition and a private demand in sharp decline.

Of particular concern is the behavior of the private channel, historically a barometer of consumer confidence. In June it suffered a 29.14% collapse, burning over 28 thousand license plates and contributing entirely to the negative sign of the Passenger Cars market. The market share stops at 51.3%, also down compared to the already weak 52% of the annual cumulative.

Long-term rental, which in recent months had shown signs of holding up, did not shine: a timid +2.48% translated into just 758 more cars. A result supported exclusively by captives, up 21.51%, while the top generalist players paid the price of a penalizing tax regulation on fringe benefits, with a drop of 9.35%. A decline also for self-registrations (-11.96%), despite an increase in license plates for rental use (+45%).

The last-minute rush dominated the month. The final three weekdays of June (26-27-30) accounted for 43.2% of total registrations, a jump from 25% in May. Eight brands registered more than half of their volumes in this window: among the most active were Hyundai (65.5%), Opel (60.9%), Citroen, Fiat, Jeep, Alfa Romeo, Volkswagen and Peugeot. Mercedes, on the other hand, stood out for its more regular flow (only 26.4% in the last three days).

Brands: the strong win, the new resist, the traditional collapse

Fiat maintains its leadership with 11,506 registrations, but loses 33.75% on an annual basis. Toyota is threateningly approaching with 10,073 registrations (-11.04%), followed by Volkswagen (9,678, -13.26%). Dacia returns to fourth but suffers a collapse of 32.58%, while Renault is fifth at -28.4%. Sixth BMW with a +10.68% and seventh Audi (-4.91%).

Among the virtuous cases, Alfa Romeo (+88.96%), Cupra (+30.7%) and BYD stand out , which exceeds 2,000 units and a 1.4% share. Tesla (-66%), Lancia (-82.63%), Citroen (-50.75%), Kia, Opel and Nissan all fell between 22% and 28%.

The balance of CO2 sanctions is heavy: Fiat (117.6 g/km against the target of 99.7) accumulates 146 million euros, Volkswagen 164 million, Peugeot 93, Ford 140. Virtuous Toyota (95.8 g/km), BYD (active by 70 million) and Audi which however, with 37 thousand cars, reaches 162 million in sanctions.

Private vs. Rental: Who Really Pulls?

The private channel is confirmed as the most affected: the sharp decline is a sign of the climate of distrust and the lack of effective incentive policies. On the other hand, brands with greater exposure to pure retail, such as Dacia (87.3%) and Suzuki (86.7%), still manage to defend good volumes. The average private share stops at 51.3%.

In long-term rental, Cupra dominates (60.9%), BMW, Alfa Romeo, Audi and Volkswagen, all with shares between 30% and 46%. In the short term, BYD leads with 21% of its sales. In self-registrations, DR (41.4%), BYD, Hyundai and Jeep stand out.

Emissions and sanctions: CO2 is still a burden

In the first half of the year, average emissions from Passenger Cars are 116 g/km, with a CAFE fine projection of 1.863 billion. Of these, over 1 billion is attributable to private individuals, who with 118 g/km are the most impactful segment. Companies (132 g/km) contribute 165 million, NLT is the most virtuous with 110 g/km but pays 320 million. Self-registrations remain under control (110 g/km, 142 million).

LCV: A Market That Continues to Lose Share

Light commercial vehicles also continue the negative trend: June closes at -5.19%, the eleventh consecutive contraction. Fiat is first (+25.79%), followed by Ford (+9.75%), Renault (-35.28%) and Iveco (-54.62%). Total registrations were 18,521.

Emissions are high: average at 182 g/km, with artisans and professionals at 192 g/km. Long-term rental marks 170 g/km but pays 50 million out of a total of 249 million CAFE LCV fines in the semester.

2025 Forecast: More Scattered Signs, But Uncertain Future

According to Dataforce, the 2025 forecast drops to 1,580,000 units, with a slight +0.68% on 2024. Private individuals should lose 22,500 units, with a decrease of 2.45%. Strong growth expected for short-term rental (+27.8%) and moderate for long-term rental (+5.52%). Self-registrations and direct business purchases will remain stable or slightly down.

Among fuels, BEVs should grow by 43%, full hybrids by 31% and PHEVs by 80%. Petrol, diesel and LPG are decreasing. For LCVs, a negative forecast with 168,000 registrations (-10.88%) and all channels suffering.

The month of June marked a deep crisis for the Italian car market, only partially masked by the final rush to register. The data speaks clearly: private individuals are falling behind, rentals are not enough, emissions remain high and fines weigh like millstones. The system now seems to be in a vice: on the one hand, the need for an ecological transition that is slow to materialize, on the other, a market that is unable to truly recover. Rapid, coordinated and courageous decisions are needed. Without a shared strategic vision, the car risks being left in the pits, while Europe accelerates.