Why Ferrari's upswing only comes in Barcelona

(Motorsport-Total.com) - Charles Leclerc believes that Ferrari's recovery will only really come to fruition at the Spanish Grand Prix in June 2025 - exactly when the International Automobile Federation (FIA) introduces stricter controls on the flexibility of the front wings .

This new technical directive is to come into force two races after Imola, where Ferrari will present a comprehensive upgrade package: At the European opener, the traditional team from Maranello will be aiming to improve the aerodynamic downforce of the SF-25.

It's no coincidence that Ferrari is citing the Spanish Grand Prix as a potential turning point: Leclerc hopes the stricter regulations will create more equal opportunities. The implicit assumption is that some competitors—particularly McLaren and Mercedes—may have previously benefited from flexible aerodynamic elements that will now be more closely monitored.

Where Ferrari currently stands in Formula 1

Numbers underline Ferrari's urgency: Compared to last year's car, the SF-25 has improved by an average of 0.857 seconds in the first five races - measured in terms of the best lap times.

While factors such as new asphalt in China and Japan may have influenced this figure, a comparison with other top teams provides more meaningful insights: McLaren, for example, found around 1.359 seconds - the third-biggest improvement in the field - while Ferrari is only sixth in this metric.

The leaders in terms of time gains are Alpine and Williams, although their progress is due more to how far behind they were in 2024 than to a technical revolution.

Did Ferrari overestimate the SF-25?

There are signs that Ferrari may have overestimated the competitiveness of the SF-25. The preseason confidence expressed by the team management and drivers led many to believe Ferrari could challenge for both titles. However, the early races revealed weaknesses— particularly in qualifying , where the SF-25 trailed McLaren by almost half a second on one lap.

This deficit not only affects starting positions, but often forces Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton to drive in "dirty air" behind other cars during the race, which further limits performance.

Instability at the rear bothers Hamilton in particular

A key problem remains the rear of the racing car, which lacks vertical downforce, which affects stability at high speeds.

Hamilton visibly struggles with this instability , which negatively impacts his braking and steering. Leclerc, on the other hand, is able to partially compensate for this with his front-wheel-oriented driving style, often getting more out of the car than he actually allows.

How realistic is a Ferrari revival?

Ferrari hopes that the major upgrade at Imola—before a more comprehensive package in Spain—can address these weaknesses. The updates fall within a three-week phase that includes Monaco, but the technical team has clearly chosen Barcelona as the first real test of progress.

The focus on Spain, despite Imola being the European opener and Ferrari's first home race of the year, points to two things: the extent of the aerodynamic upgrades and the potential impact of the FIA's front wing flexibility directive. Ferrari believes the combination of both factors could narrow the gap to McLaren, Red Bull, and Mercedes.

However, recent experience with a similar rear wing policy , which barely changed the balance of power, has dampened expectations. Nevertheless, the team hopes that the changes in Imola and Barcelona mark the beginning of a comeback.

Whether this is enough to fight for podium places on a long-term basis depends as much on what the competition loses as on what Ferrari itself gains.