Verstappen in hunting mode: Will Red Bull catch Piastri before Turn 5 in Spa?

(Motorsport-Total.com) - McLaren driver Oscar Piastri doesn't think he has much chance of holding off Max Verstappen's low-downforce Red Bull at the start of the F1 sprint for the 2025 Belgian Grand Prix, despite an impressive pole position he secured in sprint qualifying on Friday . Although he secured pole position with a dominant performance, Piastri is holding back on his enthusiasm about his chances of winning.

"Spa is probably one of the worst places to be on pole, so yeah... It's just like that," said the reserved Australian after his lap time, which put him five-tenths ahead of Max Verstappen and six-tenths ahead of teammate Lando Norris. "But I think the pace in the car was really good all day, and I felt very comfortable. Hopefully we can get a good start and then try to win the sprint."

With the long straights up to the Les Combes chicane, interrupted only by the legendary Eau Rouge passage, Piastri faces a major challenge: to fend off Verstappen and Norris in the slipstream.

Perhaps not, considering the recent past. Since 2017, the lead on lap 1 at Spa has only changed twice: in 2018, when Sebastian Vettel overtook Lewis Hamilton with a "slingshot," and in 2023, when Charles Leclerc was overtaken by Sergio Perez at Les Combes. Excluding the chaotic wet race in 2021 and the wet sprint in 2023, the pole-sitter has defended the lead in all other cases. More often than not, it was even the second-placed driver who came under pressure at the start.

All Spa starts since 2017 (Top 3 Grid - Top 3 after lap 1):

2017: Hamilton, Vettel, Bottas - Hamilton, Vettel, Bottas

2018: Hamilton, Vettel, Ocon - Vettel, Hamilton, Perez

2019: Leclerc, Vettel, Hamilton - Leclerc, Vettel, Hamilton

2020: Hamilton, Bottas, Verstappen - Hamilton, Bottas, Verstappen

2022: Sainz, Perez, Alonso - Sainz, Perez, Russell

2023: Leclerc, Perez, Hamilton - Perez, Leclerc, Hamilton

2024: Sainz, Perez, Hamilton - Sainz, Hamilton, Perez

However, there are several factors that skew this small sample. For example, Perez had dismal starts from second place in both 2022 and 2024, and Verstappen hasn't even been on the front row in the past three years due to regular engine penalties. An almost traditional Red Bull pattern in Belgium.

Things will be different in 2025. Furthermore, Red Bull, as in Silverstone, has chosen a setup with less downforce to achieve a faster overall lap despite losing time in the slow corners. McLaren, on the other hand, has brought a new rear wing that makes the car more aerodynamically efficient: more downforce with less drag. Nevertheless, Verstappen's RB21 is on average four km/h faster on the straights, both on the Kemmel Straight and between Blanchimont and the Bus Stop Chicane.

Telemetry shows that Verstappen is losing time primarily in the slow corners like Bruxelles, Fagnes, Stavelot, and the final chicane – four of the five-tenths of a second gap in Fagnes and Stavelot alone. This imbalance is greater than expected, admits Helmut Marko: "We thought we were closer. But in Sector 2 alone, we're losing four tenths. Not just us, but the others too. We've made a step forward, but obviously that's not enough to fight with Piastri."

Even if Verstappen overtakes on the straight, can he hold off the faster McLaren long enough, as he did in Japan? Given McLaren's better tire management and overall pace, the Dutchman is skeptical: "When you're missing almost five-tenths, it doesn't make much difference whether you're a bit faster or slower on the straight," he says. "We just have to run our own race and see what's possible."