Strategy analysis: Will Leclerc's second fresh set of medium tires be his trump card?

(Motorsport-Total.com) - McLaren has secured the front row of the grid for the Formula 1 race in Barcelona with Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris, but a man from the midfield could reshuffle the cards in the Spanish Grand Prix: Charles Leclerc.

The Ferrari driver starts the race from seventh place behind Mercedes and Red Bull , but strategically he has an ace up his sleeve. Unlike most of the other top drivers, Leclerc still has two fresh sets of medium tires, which gives him more flexibility during the race—and possibly the decisive advantage.

Tire choice: Why the hard tire causes problems

The Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya is known for its demanding tire conditions: rough asphalt surface, fast corners, and high g-forces. And although Pirelli is using softer compounds at many races this season, the company has stuck with its toughest selection in Spain: C1, C2, and C3.

However, it quickly became apparent during practice that the hard C1 tire offered little grip. "We saw that the C1 had very little grip; it skidded a lot," explained Pirelli's chief engineer Simone Berra. "The balance is also off—the car is very disconnected front and rear. You experience understeer at medium cornering speeds and oversteer in the high-speed sections."

Another problem: To protect the rear tires, teams tend to set up their cars with a certain amount of understeer. In Barcelona, ​​this has a particularly negative impact on the front tire—especially the left front tire—which is subjected to particularly high stress in the fast corners. This creates a conflict of objectives: If you protect the rear axle, you overload the front axle—and in the worst case, you lose performance on both sides.

Two stops probably - but when?

Based on the current situation, everything points to a two-stop race – just like last year, when almost all drivers made two tire changes. Despite its nominally greater durability, the C1 is not a realistic option for long stints due to its poor balance and lack of grip. Therefore, the focus is on C2 and C3, i.e., medium and soft tires.

"The wear level is quite similar between the C2 and C3," says Berra. "The C3 has more grip, but also a bit more wear. The C2 is more consistent, but offers less grip. Overall, they're very close—both should be good for racing."

The starting phase will be crucial: Most drivers in the top 10 only have one set of new soft tires left – which they will most likely use in the first stint. Because in Barcelona, ​​too, track position is worth its weight in gold. Whoever gets ahead at the start has the best chance. Pit stops are expected to begin between laps 12 and 14. Anyone who has to stop earlier will have a problem. The next step will be to decide which tire sequence is best: soft-medium-soft? Or soft-medium-medium—perhaps with used tires in the final stint?

Leclerc's Joker: Two fresh sets of mediums

This is where Charles Leclerc comes in. The Ferrari driver could only secure seventh place in qualifying – partly because he ran out of fresh soft tires early. But foregoing an extra set in qualifying could now prove to be an advantage: Leclerc is the only top driver with two fresh sets of medium tires.

This not only gives him flexibility—for example, two nearly equal stints on medium tires—but also strategic independence from the action ahead. Should there be a tussle at the front like the one between Norris and Verstappen in 2023, Leclerc may be able to gain ground with consistent pace and later pit stops.

Pirelli Motorsport Director Mario Isola explains: "Theoretically, if I only have one new hard and one new medium, and the soft tire degrades more than expected, soft-hard-medium would be the ideal order, because you save the medium for the easier final stint."

"But I've also heard that some teams are considering soft-medium-hard because they believe the track will improve so much by the end of the race that the hard tire will slide less and perform better." His conclusion: "I don't know who's right in the end. But that's the theory, anyway."

And if it rains?

That's probably not the case. While it was gray and damp at the start of the 1991 race in Barcelona, ​​and the duel between Nigel Mansell and Ayrton Senna with its vapor trails over their wings is legendary, rain has been a rarity in Montmelo since the change to the spring calendar.

The last real rain race was almost 30 years ago: In 1996, Michael Schumacher celebrated his first victory for the Scuderia in an inferior Ferrari – by over 45 seconds. However, according to the forecast, a comeback of this weather spectacle is very unlikely.