Long run analysis 6h Spa 2025: Ferrari not automatically the winner

(Motorsport-Total.com) - The third race of the 2025 WEC season, and for the third time, Ferrari looks unbeatable. After securing the top three spots on the grid and setting two of the three fastest times in free practice , it seems like the race is over. But history has already shown that while the Ferrari 499P is the superior car in qualifying, the situation in the races has been much closer.

Even the one-two-three victory in Qatar wasn't as convincing as it seemed. BMW finished just ten seconds behind at the finish with a car that had suffered a drive-through penalty and a technical problem during the race. And in Imola, Ferrari only managed one car on the podium , even though the six-hour race there is rather unusual due to the all-important factor of track position.

So what can we expect for Spa-Francorchamps? Ferrari was overwhelmingly superior in qualifying, but so far there's little indication that it will be a surefire victory in the race.

Only the third training session provides good data

The analysis is significantly more difficult this time than in the previous two races for several reasons. Firstly, the lap time at the Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps is very long. This also means that the influence of "freak laps," i.e., qualifying simulations that went wrong (usually due to traffic), is greater than at other tracks, where more laps are completed in the long run, which makes up for the one lap.

Secondly, the track was resurfaced, so no previous season's lap times are available yet. It wasn't always easy to tell exactly what constituted a failed qualifying run and what constituted a long run. To make matters worse, qualifying simulations were run in all sessions, making it even more difficult to sort out the results.

Times in the high 2:03 range could be the result of a recent long run or a failed qualifying attempt. Race pace is likely to be 2:04 minutes or higher.

And thirdly, the crucial second practice session was interrupted by numerous red flags. It was so fragmented that it was difficult to gather any meaningful data. Motorsport-Total.com knows of several manufacturers who are still in the dark about their race pace due to the cancellations.

Therefore, the only real insight can be gained from the third free practice session. And that took place at a time when there is no racing on Saturday. The race doesn't start until 2 p.m. – another hour later than in 2024.

So what can we conclude? Here's the average of all times within a five-second window of the respective car's best time in the third free practice session, excluding qualifying simulations to the best of our knowledge:

1. Cadillac #12 - 02:05.2482. Alpine #35 - 02:05.4293. Ferrari #50 - 02:05.6504. Peugeot #94 - 02:05.7825. Cadillac #38 - 02:05.9016. Ferrari #51 - 02:05.9187. Alpine #36 - 02:05.9498. Peugeot #93 - 02:06.2619. Toyota #7 - 02:06.38910. Porsche #6 - 02:06.47511. AF Corse Ferrari #83 - 02:06.56312. Toyota #8 - 02:06.58913. Aston Martin #007 - 02:06.67814. Proton-Porsche #99 - 02:06.745 15. BMW #20 - 02:06.790 16. BMW #15 - 02:06.920 17. Porsche #5 - 02:06.973

18. Aston Martin #009 - 02:07.106

Of course, we don't know which tires these times were set on. Michelin brought the medium and soft compounds to Spa-Francorchamps. The new asphalt means less wear compared to last year, when Michelin was sharply criticized for this tire choice.

The soft tire has a positive effect on the short practice runs. Over longer distances, it naturally causes problems at the rear, but could certainly become an issue in the final stages.

Nevertheless, it's striking that Ferrari doesn't seem nearly as dominant in the long runs as it did in qualifying. The trend seems to be continuing: Ferrari is getting something out of the car in qualifying that the competition can't. Everyone is puzzling over what that is.

Cadillac appears very strong in the long run, which isn't surprising given the V-Series.R's still very good ranking . Alpine, Ferrari, and Peugeot appear similarly strong to Caddy, although Ferrari obviously has to take on the role of favorite. The private AF Corse Ferrari is undervalued in these statistics, and Toyota's performance seems realistic. They have absolutely no chance against them.

First and second training with limited significance

For the sake of completeness, here are the runs from the other free practice sessions. However, they are very distorted. The first session was the hardest to distinguish between qualifying simulations and long runs, and it's also always the least informative of all the sessions. As mentioned, the second session was very fragmented.

The most surprising performance here is still Porsche's, although a similar case occurred at the 2024 Le Mans pre-test, when Kevin Estre drove a near-magical four-lap run that Porsche never achieved again in the long run. The manufacturers' programs in the practice sessions at Spa were considerably more opaque than in Imola and Qatar, so these tables should be treated with caution.

The #36 Alpine likely used two sets of tires in the first practice session, which explains why it's so far ahead in that session and so far behind in the second. It's also striking here that Ferrari, while right at the front, hasn't been nearly as dominant as in qualifying.

Results of the first free practice session

1. Ferrari #51 - 02:05.8322. Alpine #36 - 02:05.8593. Porsche #5 - 02:05.8674. Porsche #6 - 02:05.9035. Ferrari #50 - 02:06.1106. AF Corse Ferrari #83 - 02:06.1197. Toyota #8 - 02:06.1918. Toyota #7 - 02:06.2249. Cadillac #12 - 02:06.22910. Peugeot #94 - 02:06.23611. BMW #20 - 02:06.30212. Peugeot #93 - 02:06.34913. Aston Martin #009 - 02:06.36614. BMW #15 - 02:06.37115. Alpine #35 - 02:06.72016. Cadillac #38 - 02:06.94017. Proton Porsche #99 - 02:07.278

18. Aston Martin #007 - 02:07.565

Results of the second free practice session

1. AF Corse Ferrari #83 - 02:05.1172. Porsche #5 - 02:05.2693. BMW #15 - 02:05.5734. Alpine #35 - 02:05.6145. Cadillac #38 - 02:05.7216. Peugeot #94 - 02:05.7927. Ferrari #50 - 02:05.8668. Porsche #6 - 02:05.9039. Toyota #7 - 02:06.03510. BMW #20 - 02:06.03511. Peugeot #93 - 02:06.20812. Aston Martin #009 - 02:06.21313. Toyota #8 - 02:06.25214. Alpine #36 - 02:06.36315. Cadillac #12 - 02:06.39216. Aston Martin #007 - 02:07.565

17. Proton-Porsche #99 - 02:07.669