Formula 1 - Formula 1 favorite check Silverstone: Will this Verstappen wing be McLaren's nightmare today?

Max Verstappen has done it again. At Silverstone, he nipped ahead of the rest of the Formula 1 field, led by McLaren, in qualifying at the last minute and into pole position. Thanks to a setup gimmick. Will he pay the price in today's race? Motorsport-Magazin.com 's favorites check casts doubt on that. But the weather at Silverstone could once again ruin all the theories.

The weekend got off to a poor start for Verstappen and Red Bull on Friday . Excessive understeer in both practice sessions, but later on, the team managed to balance the RB21 well by making a bold aerodynamic decision: They fitted the smallest available rear wing to the car.

Silverstone is a high-speed track in and of itself, but the fast corners and several long, medium-speed sections actually demand downforce. However, the Red Bull is known for its overall high-speed prowess throughout the year. So the Red Bull engineers were right: Even with a mini rear wing, Verstappen would have enough grip to at least be sufficiently fast in the fast corners.

"It seemed to hold, so we stuck with it," Verstappen said. The result was pole position ahead of Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris. Even though McLaren (and especially Ferrari) were considerably better in many corners. The question now is how this will end for Verstappen in the race. A widely held F1 adage is: The more grip you generate through aerodynamics, the less you demand of your tires in the race, and the easier it is to conserve them.

"It's difficult with all these fast corners," warns Verstappen. It will play a key role in today's race if it stays dry. The track has built up grip and the temperatures are cool, so tire performance degradation over the distance is minimal. Although Pirelli will supply a softer tire in 2025, the trend on Saturday evening was toward a medium-hard one-stop. This is said to be two to three seconds faster over the distance than two stops.

But the adage that more downforce equals better tire management isn't necessarily true. McLaren team principal Andrea Stella explains: "You'll be fast on the straights, which means you'll actually have to push less in the corners." The top speed advantage can give Verstappen a buffer that he can use for corner management. And the top speed advantage is immense. With DRS open, the difference between Red Bull and McLaren on the Hangar Straight in qualifying was a good 8 km/h. This also allows Verstappen to easily overtake if he falls behind.

Worse still: McLaren could be forced to constantly push through the corners to keep up with Red Bull's top-speed rocket. "You could put even more strain on the tires," warns Stella. In the worst case scenario, Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris behind Verstappen will burn out their tires and won't even be able to attack. "With DRS, we seem to be just as fast as Max without," Norris worries. Overtaking is difficult.

So far, the signs are looking good for Verstappen. The Red Bull seems particularly good at handling the high energy from high-speed corners without putting too much strain on the tires. In the long runs on Friday, Verstappen already drove with the small wing. And on medium tires, he was the fastest driver , just slightly faster than McLaren.

However, the conditions have changed since today. Silverstone is expecting even cooler conditions, plus a rain shower this morning. It should be dry for the race, but all of this is likely to significantly reduce the grip level. This could pose a problem for the left front tire, which is brutally put through the wringer by the high-speed corners here.

"We know that the wear life of the front tires is at its limit," says Pirelli Motorsport Director Mario Isola regarding the one-stop strategy. The problem: Graining on the very inside of the front tire is abrading the rubber there. Once you're down to the casing, the risk of a puncture increases massively. And the less grip, the greater the risk of the car sliding over the front axle, exacerbating this effect. The teams could be forced into a medium-hard-hard two-stop.

Neither Verstappen nor McLaren reported excessive graining, at least on Friday. However, if they rush at the start of the race in low grip conditions, it could put them in trouble against Ferrari. They are certainly strong. "The times Ferrari were able to set in practice were impressive," says Andrea Stella. "We wouldn't have been able to achieve some of those times with full tanks."

But Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc are only in fifth and sixth, behind George Russell's Mercedes. They couldn't get their qualifying under control, and both were annoyed after poor laps, because for the first time since Monaco, the SF-25 was capable of more. "Starting from sixth makes it so difficult," moans Leclerc. "We always have to fight back. When we're at the front, the people with a clean race simply have an advantage over us."

At least there are no midfielders in the way this time. Only George Russell . He's praying that the temperatures plummet today. His Mercedes has performed well on just one lap so far: the last one in Q3. Even the cool Saturday, given the high lateral loads of the high-speed corners, didn't seem to be enough to keep the tire temperatures on the Mercedes low enough for the car to function. Russell would probably prefer frost. Or rain.

As of Saturday evening, the weather forecast for Silverstone predicts a dry race. Rain is expected in the morning, with the probability decreasing significantly by the start of the afternoon, to below 30 percent. If it does rain, it's expected to drizzle in the early stages. However, if slippery conditions do prevail, that would likely be Verstappen's greatest threat.

Sure, he's an exceptional performer in the wet, but one thing's for sure: more downforce definitely helps. Ferrari has the largest wing of any of the cars in the leading group. And nine-time Silverstone winner Lewis Hamilton knows what he's doing here in the rain. Regardless of the fact that he's also one of the best in the wet.

But when it rains, all the forecasts go out the window anyway. Just look at last year's race. When it rains, it often rains here in changeable weather, and then victory requires a lightning-fast strategy and weather crew, coupled with a confident and consistently cool driver. That's why Hamilton won here a year ago, ahead of Verstappen .